March 2026 Quarterly Market Update
Read our latest market and economic update for the first quarter of 2026.
Key points:
Oil surged due to the conflict in Iran: Oil prices have soared in the first quarter due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which plays a key role in the transportation of oil. Increased oil prices for a sustained period of time weights on both inflation and recession concerns.
International and Australian bond yields rose: Higher energy prices as a result of the conflict in Iran sparked fresh inflation concerns and eliminated the likelihood of rate cuts in the near future.
Equities underperformed: Global equities struggled in Q1 2026, with the Middle East conflict creating a risk-off market. Energy stocks outperformed as energy prices increased.
USD appreciation: The US dollar initially weakened before rebounding sharply in late February as the Iran conflict triggered a flight to safety. The Australian dollar strengthened earlier in the quarter on a hawkish RBA, higher rates, and strong commodities, but relinquished much of those gains as geopolitical tensions pushed investors back toward safe-haven assets.